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Tuesday, July 18, 2006

Knotts Would Have HURT Moore, Polls Say

According to polling information obtained exclusively by FITS, the now-defunct Jakie Knotts for Governor campaign - had it continued - would actually have benefitted incumbent Republican Gov. Mark Sanford and hurt Democratic nominee Tommy Moore.

The polling, which sources close to Knotts indicated was the determining factor in his decision to drop out of the race, showed that at least 2 out of every 3 Knotts' voters favored Moore over Sanford, and that a Knotts' candidacy would accordingly have taken more votes from the Democratic nominee than from the governor.

No word yet on whether Sanford's internal polling showed the same dynamic, but given how ridiculously off Sanford's numbers were throughout the Lovelace primary challenge, there's a good bet they could have missed this boat as well, which would explain the massive behind-the-scenes effort to keep Knotts' name off of the ballot.

Just about every political scientist in the state as well as this idiot have opined on how badly a Knotts candidacy would have hurt Sanford in a general election.

Turns out Jakie got the truth just in time to do what he always does - whatever he thinks will hurt the leader of his proclaimed party the most.

Update - Thanks to all of you for pointing out our "Dewey Defeats Truman" headline. A little too much Kendall Jackson amongst girls can be bad.

15 Comments:

Blogger Laurin Manning said...

I've been saying this from the get-go (Knotts--A chance? and this post on Crunchy GOP) and getting funny looks from everyone--Democrats and Republicans.

If what you say about polling numbers is true, well, I feel a little redeemed. :)

3:45 PM

 
Blogger Jeremy said...

Polling is what it is, and I'm not surprised that potential Knotts voters were more pro-Moore than pro-Sanford. It makes sense. If one guy running says "Vote for me if you like Mark Sanford" while the other two say "Vote for me if you hate Mark Sanford," chances are Mark Sanford wins because the anti-Sanford vote is split.

Knotts could have hurt Sanford by running to the right of him. But you can tell by looking at Jakie that he's no fan of running.

5:31 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Might want to revisit the title of this post...

5:37 PM

 
Anonymous willie said...

Will,

Knotts was Moore's only chance to win. Moore is going to get 45% of the vote no matter the other candidate(s). While Knotts dropping out might free up a percentage vote or two for Moore, Knotts in the race takes more from Sanford. It would have been much easier for Moore to win with 45% in a 3 way race than possibly get 50% plus one in a 2 way race.

I realize your "secret" polls possibly don't exist other that in your attempt to spin for your old boss. If they do exist, there is the chance they are pseudo-polls by pseudo-pollsters like Richard Quinn and Cary Crantford. Those guys would know a valid sample if it slapped them in the face. They'd be better off just making the stuff up. Finally even if you have a legitimate (read non-Quinn) poll, I bet you a dollar it shows huge numbers of undecided African American voters. These undecided African American voters don't exist. Pollsters (particularly Republican pollsters) don't know how to poll black folks and routinely come back with 25% or more of black voters as undecideds.

In November, 26% of all votes cast will be by African Americans and Tommy Moore will receive right at 95% of them. If your polls don't show that, its a bad poll. If its a Quinn poll, its probably made-up.

8:24 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Knotts, Shealy and Moore = Hezbollah, Syria and Iran.

1980's style Russian missles ain't no match for today's weaponary (money, name recognition and reputation) so all of you Sanford doubters (which basically consists of bloggers who wish they could be the bartenders who work on political campaigns or who haven't finished their education and think they know something) rest assured that in a few months from now, the big dogs will have their bones because you're all out of touch with the every day voter who doesn't read your high and mighty bullshit. The everyday voter doesn't want growth in government and just wants their garbage picked up, a six-pack at home and the occassional lay from their wife - unless their married to Jay W. Ragley, then they want at least something more than dime sized pleasure.

10:04 PM

 
Blogger faithinsound said...

Poor, poor Willie,

You have the namesake of legend bestowed upon you, but obviously received the intellect of a newt.

The polling was what convinced Jakie to back out - not money, not signatures - raw numbers. If Knotts thought for one second he might cost the governor even three percent in the general election, there's no way in hell he wouldn't still be running today.

And in case you haven't been to our fine online establishment before, we're not afraid in the least to be critical of Gov. Sanford when he deserves it.

At any rate, why not try employing your impressive numerical skills making change for us at the drive-thru next time.

Until next time, enjoy your service,

-FITS

10:33 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Laurin - stick to posts about socks with nasty sweat stains and refrain from politics or either get a real job. Your boy Tommy has no chance and neither does your sidekick Jakie (aka Enos)

1:15 AM

 
Blogger STR said...

I guess the poll #'s don't lie but I was almost certain it would help Moore for this reason:

I can't tell you how many friends I have who are claim to be "moderate" or "lean republican but votes on the right guy." Thing is, all of these people might talk bad about Sanford and etc., but when it comes down to it......even though they talk bad about the Governor, and even though they claim to not be a republican or be a diehard republican, I could almost guarantee you all of them when it gets down to it in the privacy of a voting booth, there isn't no way there going to bring themselves to vote for a Democrat.

8:51 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ok, seriously, isn't the title of the post backwards?

9:17 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

FITS, you have a way with words describing would be Infant Terrible Andrew Brack. I have doubts taht he's recovered from being trounced by Henry Brown, though Rod ran that campaign too.

9:46 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

More like too many Makers and Diets!

2:17 PM

 
Anonymous willie said...

Will,

Nothing convinced Jakie not to run. Not the money, not the polls. He never intended to run.
It was a Rod Shealy publicity stunt from day one.

I realize you just arrived on and exited from the political scene in the last four years, so let me share a little of not so ancient history with you. James Metts pulled exactly the same stunt in 1998. He went around the state for a solid month bashing David Beasley pretending to be mounting an independent challeng for Governor. He never intended to run but used the idea of a candidacy as a vehicle to travel around bashing the Governor. Jakie did exactly the same thing.

Also, I noticed you didn't even give us a hint regarding the identity of the alleged pollster. It is very hard for me to imagine Jakie Knotts or Rod Shealy employing a legitimate pollster. Its well known that Richard Quinn cooks his numbers to goad perspective clients into races. It would be a first if he cooked numbers to keep a prospective client out but its not beyond the realm of possibility. It is beyond the realm of possibility that Quinn could come up with a valid sample AND ask neutral questions.

7:27 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jakie hurt himself - big time. Nothing wrong with making a statement, but he went about it the wrong way. Seeing what Jakie did has given me even more resolve that less government is better for our state. Sanford - keep making those hard decisions - even if it makes waves... right will always come shining through.

9:08 PM

 
Blogger faithinsound said...

Dear Willie,

Thank you for the history lesson. We were actually alive and in South Carolina in 1998, as well as 1988 and even 1978, although in 1978 our interests were pretty much confined to Lincoln Logs and Barbie dolls.

And yes, anon, there was a tad too much Maker's involved in our botched headline, one of the driving factors in our recent run-in with sobriety.

-FITS

9:18 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yeah, Will, I remember you in the late 90s trying to get a gig in the Hodges administration.

7:02 PM

 

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