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Monday, October 16, 2006

Turnout

There are 2.4 million registered voters in South Carolina, but there won't be 2.4 million ballots cast in the election on November 7.

How many ballots will be cast?

That's the 2.4 million dollar question.

Most political observers insist that only half of South Carolina's registered voters - about 1.2 million - will cast ballots three weeks from now.

That's low for a general election, but on the heels of dismal turnout for the 2006 GOP and Democratic Primaries, it's not surprising.

Democrats have put a lot of energy into registering more African-American voters this cycle, but it remains to be seen whether that effort will pay dividends on Election Day.

So FITS is interested ... what do you think turnout will be on November 7?

16 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

I say it will be about 1.5 million. This is higher than history would show for the SC gen. ele., but polarizing issues as well as the War, Katrina, gas prices, and other issues that have really stirred up the public debate will probably leave SC'ns voting in record number as they did in 2004 (not as high as they did then) but higher than usual. Not to mention some record amounts of money being put into usually low profile S.C. races - Compt. Gen., Sec. Ed., Spratt Norman and more. This will be a very high turn out for SC I think.

2:48 PM

 
Anonymous west_rhino said...

Less than 42%

2:49 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

1.5 million is too high. 1.2 million is too low. 1.35 million is a good split.

3:56 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'd say it depends on how many voting machines are working in any given district and how long people are willing to wait outside for hours.

3:59 PM

 
Blogger Palmetto Republican said...

Half?

That sounds like a little much on a mid-term election. Our Gov.'s race is really low key.

5:08 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It depends on how much money the Democrats are putting on "the streets' to buy the black votes...

6:41 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Turnout will be low, low, low. And this is the way that the Republican Party wishes for it to be. 1 million at best.

6:58 PM

 
Blogger Statesman said...

40%

8:44 PM

 
Blogger Statesman said...

40%

8:44 PM

 
Anonymous Tim said...

Right around 50%. Hell, I'm a political junkie, and I'm not even that interested in SC races, so I can't imagine your average Joe is all fired up about turning out. I suppose the "christians" are looking forward to banning gay marriage (again), but other than that, there's no passion on either side. And, anon, to paraphrase my hero, Dick Harpootlian, we Democrats have no interest in buying the black vote, we just want to rent it for a few hours on election day.

7:57 AM

 
Anonymous Politics Rocks said...

Tim, W, or somebody help me out,

Is it amendment 1 that will define marriage as one man and one woman?

Kind of what Tim said, hasn't SC already established this? I'm asking more than saying, I'm not 100% sure, but it seems like this was on the ballot the other year.

9:06 AM

 
Anonymous skinny said...

979,684

10:12 AM

 
Anonymous west_rhino said...

I'll stick with my 42%, though the 1 million voters still feels too high.

10:38 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Skinny, 979,684 is puposterously low. At least 979,926 peopl will show up to vote if not a couple of more...

1:30 PM

 
Anonymous Tim Cameron said...

With the Marriage Amendement on the ballot it will be over 1 million, probably somewhere around 1,055,000. Otherwise it might be under a million

2:32 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The marriage amendment will pass and everybody knows it. It's not as hot as an issue as it was in 2004, since God did not smite Massachusetts as many were expecting. (In fact, the Red Sox won the World Series that year. Go figure.)

There is very low interest in this election. This is usually good for Republicans, but bad for incumbents, so it's a wash.

10:58 PM

 

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